How To Get A Girl/Guy

There are two things that are more difficult than making an after-dinner speech: climbing a wall which is leaning toward you and kissing a girl who is leaning away from you. – Winston Churchill

I love copying from people. It seems that nowadays, everyone writes an article and puts a misplaced title so that they can get everyone’s attention. Now that I have your attention, I hate to disappoint you that this post is one of those that will bore you to death so I suggest you read on since life is hard and we could all do with a break by dying.

It is about a fortnight to Valentine’s Day which means every guy in a relationship is trying to get out … until at least after valentines, while every girl not in a relationship is trying to get into one lest she uses her own money to send herself flowers. Luckily for guys, Valentines is on a Tuesday which means you will spend less (if it were a weekend, you would have to take her on a stupid getaway and – since you have not even finished paying debts you incurred in January – hope you are killed by a hungry stray gazelle. You were trying to save it from a caged satisfied lion is a great excuse, don’t you think?). Unluckily for ladies, Valentines is on a working day which means any of the following scenarios: He will spend less on you if you are lucky to be dating anyone during that bad period; If you are not dating anyone, you will have to buy yourself flowers and have them delivered to your place of work; If the whole office knows how wonderful your boyfriend is, then flowers must be delivered to your place of work or else you will be the laughing stock of the year; As if that is not enough, there is that girl you hate who will receive like 5 different bouquets of flowers yet she is single and not as ‘hot’ as you are, never mind that she sent herself 4 of them.

Valentines aside, how easy/hard is it for a guy to get a girl or vice versa?I went on a fact finding mission like Moha of Jicho Pevu, asked questions that have never been asked before, almost got killed in the process but lived to tell the tale. I should first of all say that I am no Steadman nor poll agency. My sample is a representative sample of the people on my phone book and not the whole world. I also used the same number of guys and girls. If Mathematics is not your thing, then you will be forgiven for not understanding only if you are a hot girl and if Mathematics is your thing and you find that I have done it a great injustice by making an error in facts or whatever, then send your comments to gotohellandnevercomeback@greatrnk.com.

The first question I asked was how many girls a guy had seriously hit on and vice versa for girls (how many guys had hit on her). On average, guys have hit on about 4 girls while girls have been hit on by about 15 guys. I am sure there must be an explanation to this anomaly that I do not know of like either both groups are exaggerating in opposite directions; or the girls in my phone book are hot and  are hit on by many guys. My best guess however is that there are things that guys do, out of courtesy or whatever, that girls interpret to mean the guys are hitting on them. I will believe the average which is guys have hit on or girls have been hit on by about 10 girls/guys respectively.

The second question was: of the girls you have hit on, how many have you gone on to have a relationship with (for guys) and of the guys that have hit on you, how many have you gone on to have a relationship with (for girls). In short, guys date about 62% of the girls they date (on average about 3 of the 4 they hit on) and girls will only date 28% of the guys who will hit on them (on average about 4 of the 15 who will hit on them). OK, am I the only one who thinks these stats are funny? The average is 35% (about 3 of 10).

Hitting on a girl, or being hit on by a guy (ok, gays, do not be excited here, my survey is strictly for straight people) is like tossing a coin. There are two possible outcomes: Either the girl will say YES or NO to a relationship. We all know that the probability of getting a head or a tail when a coin is tossed is ½. We can also find the probability of getting, say 3 heads when a coin is tossed 4 times using binomial distribution. If you are a pretty girl and start floating henceforth, then you can be forgiven. If you are a guy, BE A MAN and understand this stuff. Befriend Google if things start getting too hot.

Let us assume the probability of a guy and a girl dating is the probability of success. In our case, the probability of a guy dating a girl he has hit on is 62% or 0.62. Using binomial distribution, the probability of a guy dating 3 of 4 of the girls he has hit on is about 36%. Likewise, the probability of a girl dating a guy who has hit on her is 0.28. Using binomial distribution, the probability that a girl will date 4 of the 15 guys who have hit on her is about 23%. The average is 25%.

CONCLUSION:

If you are a guy and you hit on 4 girls and you do not get to date even 1 of them then you should learn how to do your laundry, cook and tidy the house since you are headed for bachelorhood all your life. If you are a girl and 15 guys hit on you and you do not date even 1 then prepare to spend your future with a cat and an adopted child since you are playing too hard to get.

The chances that a guy will date three quarters of the girls he will hit on are higher than the chances that a girl will date about a quarter of the guys who will hit on her.

The final conclusion is that I am probably as confused as you are.

APPRECIATION:

I am indebted to the guys and girls who shared very private information for the sake of this post. This post goes out to them. I owe the girls lunches. To those who could not contribute for some reason or another, I still salute you.

DISCLAIMER:

In coming up with this post, I have relied heavily on the information I was given by several people. While the sample was random, it is neither a representative of the whole World, nor this country nor this town. It is a representative sample of the people on my phone book As many guys as girls were chosen.

The definition of ‘hitting on or being hit on’ was the same for both girls and guys. It did not include the flirting that happens in clubs or when a guy is chatting up a girl in a public transport vehicle. The definition included a “a serious show of interest in a relationship with a girl”

The figures in the post are mostly whole numbers unless those that cannot be whole numbers which are to two decimal places. However, the figures in the calculations are not whole numbers. I am no expert in probability distributions. It is however unlikely that a mistake was done in the calculations (bearing in mind I dedicated considerable time in researching for the post). The limitation of Binomial distribution is that it is a discrete distribution meaning the parameters have to be whole numbers/integers. Since the averages were not whole numbers, I had to round them off to the nearest whole numbers.

THE DAY’S QUOTE: The trouble with censors is that they worry if a girl has cleavage. They ought to worry if she hasn’t any – Marilyn Monroe.

Guest Post: Capital Asset Pricing Model and Its Application to Investment Risk Management

By Samuel K. Kiranga

The task of investment capital budgeting and project appraisal can be a complex and challenging management issue. Many modern methods have been invented and developed to aid investment managers and analysts in finding the right mix of assets in any portfolio or project to which the company intends to make investment return on its excess cash flow. The concept of time value for money has been crucial in the development of these appraisal models and techniques and some of the models that make use of this idea are Discounted cash flow techniques, Accounting rate of return, Profitability index, Internal rate of return and Real options. When using discount rates for establishing the net present value of an investment model such as the Capital Asset Pricing Model, mean variance portfolio analysis and weighted average cost of capital are useful in today’s business environment. We shall take an intrinsic analysis of the Capital Asset Pricing Model, and explore its application to the investment strategy of the multinational telecommunications firm Vodafone Group.

The Capital Asset Pricing Model

Introduction

The Capital Asset Pricing Model concept was developed by Sharpe (1964) and this work on the subject of portfolio management won him the 1990 Nobel Prize in economics. The model was founded upon earlier works on investment portfolio analysis. A portfolio is a set of different assets that are held for investment purposes. In his paper on modern portfolio theory, Markowitz’s (1952) puts forward the idea that the risk accompanied by investing in such a portfolio of assets in a particular ratio outlay is lower than that of investing in each asset separately using the same level of capital funding. This idea is referred to amongst investors as portfolio diversification. In investment analysis though, Sharpe recognizes two types of risk to the prospect of an asset’s returns i.e systematic and non systematic risk. Systematic risk is risk that cannot be reduced by diversification and may come as result of factors such as interest rates and inflation trends on the entire market while non-systematic risks can be reduced by diversification as shown by Markowitz and includes risks for specific assets in a stock market. (Wang, 2003)

Credibility of Risk Valuation within the Investment Model

The backbone of the CAPM decision making strategy is Harry Marcowitz’s (1952) Mean variance portfolio theory which basically states that for a given market the optimal market line on which to base your asset selection is that which minimizes standard deviation and for any given expected return upon investment of the asset. The standard deviation in this case represents the individual asset’s risk. Typically this market line is known as the efficient frontier. This line represents the most economic points in terms of capital investment value at which investors are willing to trade off expected return for minimal risk. In a market that combines risk free investment options (e.g loans and treasury bonds) and risky assets such as stocks, the graph of expected return against risk (standard deviation) will have a tangent line that runs through the risk free return rate on the y-axis while touching the efficient frontier at a point where minimal risk is absorbed if the maximum expected returns are to be brought from including the risk free options into the portfolio. The resultant equation for calculating the expected return of such a portfolio is known as the Capital Asset Pricing Model and appears as follows,

E[˜r_i] = E( r_F ) + β_iM(E[˜r_M] − r_F)

Where ˜r_i  is the return on asset portfolio i , r_F is the rate on the risk free asset, ˜r_M is the return on the risky market asset and β_iM (beta) is the systematic risk βiM = σiM/σ2M

The first term on the right-hand side of the equation, r_F,,is the expected return on risk free assets that have market betas equal to zero, which means their returns are uncorrelated with the market return. The second term is a risk premium, i.e the systematic risk function beta of asset i, β_iM, multiplied by the premium per unit, which is the expected market return, E(R_M) less E(R_f). (Farma & French)

Hamilton (2004, p4) stated that the different between a 15% discount rate and a 14% discount rate can mean a difference in value conclusion of hundreds of thousands of dollars. How could that be? Take an example of the following scenario;

Suppose that a market’s expected return (discount rate) on a stock is 14% and the treasury bills are repaid at a rate of 5% then with a beta value of 0.75 on the stock, what would the expected return on one unit of stock be?

By simply applying the above formula we will have:

E(˜r_i) = 0.05 + 0.75(0.14 – 0.05) = 0.1175

Now take an example of an altered risk premium that comes from a discount rate of 15 %.

The calculation then shifts to

E(˜r_i) = 0.05 + 0.75(0.15 – 0.05) = 0.125

Evidently we can already see that the non-systematic element in each of the answers remains constant and so does the expected return on risk free assets. Thus we use a standard capitalization to see the difference in using either discount rate. Suppose a company such as Vodafone which makes billions in net profits annually invests Kshs. 10 Billions in the above CAPM portfolio with the funds going the a risky market asset. The expected return under the 15 % rate will be 0.125(10,000,000,000) = 1,250,000,000 while under the 14% rate it will be 0.1175(10,000,000,000) = 1,175,000,000 which is an entire difference of Kshs. 75,000,000. Economically speaking, βiM is proportional to the risk each unit currency investment in asset i adds to the market portfolio (Farma & French, 2004) while the risk premium signifies the value added by investing in the risky asset over risk free options. These combination of factors thus add credibility to the model by incorporating an asset specific risk factor for consideration during the investment appraisal process.

APPRECIATION: I am grateful to Sam Kiranga for this insightful post. You can find more of his work here

The Best of The Greatrnk

If modesty and candor are necessary to an author in his judgment of his own works, no less are they in his reader – Sarah Fielding

One day when I was busy doing nothing but basically minding my own business, someone ambushed me and was intent on making me tell her what inspires me to write, probably so that it could inspire her too. It is then that I decided to do The Worst of The Greatrnk, a post that looks at what went through my mind when I wrote the posts that did not make it. Today, I decided to go through what drugs were in my head when I wrote the posts that some of you came to love and/or hate.

The Harsh Reality Finally Sinks is a continuation of Kapenguria 6…..Sorry, I Mean Buru 7. I was meant to post part three of it but my good friend laziness took me on a trip to the country where he is king. This story is based on a true story, even though some elements are fictional. The two posts rank as number 10 and 6 respectively in the all time best of The Greatrnk.

I had seen bloggers write ‘Letters to their 13 year old them’ and (un)fortunately, no one tagged me in any. After reading several of these posts, I realised that most bloggers loved writing and reading when young. I, on the other hand, loved mathematics. I decided to do a post on what I loved at age 13: Mathematics, or as I called it, Math Hate Matics.

What is the probability that your 600th follower works in the same building as you and you have never known? OK, let me steer away from mathematics. When she asked me what inspires me to write, I at first did not have an answer. Then I decided to do this post that is boring you and of course The Worst of The Greatrnk.

When I won a blog contest, barely 4 months old in blogging (Memo to those who hate me: been there, done that, won awards and stuff. You cannot touch me!!!) I was so happy and did not even know the best way to express myself. When the competition started, I was doing badly, and I thought if only I will be among the top 5, then it would be a great achievement. Shock on me, I Won! Really!

So we are into the top 5 posts. One day, I was heading home in a mat. The lady who sat next to me had a sick child. To cut the long story short, half way through the journey, the kid somehow produced 5 litres of puke from I do not know where and made sure 98.76% of it was on me. I at least restrained my fist from making contact with the face of both the mom and the kid at a speed likely to rival the speed of light in a vacuum. Later, I thought about what we go through and what just makes us feel like cursing and SOL (Screaming Out Loud). I figured out there are a million things that make me feel like multiplying the dental formulaes of people by zero, so I decided to narrow Is She It to a relationship post.

I was blog whoring Chiira’s Blog when I saw (his sort of) review/recommendation of (I think) Kate Bomz‘s Blog. His final words in the post: “Just Maybe could turn out to be my weekly blog review. Am yet to decide that but keep watching for that.” 5 months after this proclamation, he had not started this review. Infact, he is yet to start to date. This got me thinking that I could start the same, but do it in form of a package that includes an interview of a blogger, a review of his/her blog, a guest post from him/her and finally, write a post in his/her style. Unfortunately, the furthest I ever went was my Interview of Savvy Kenya who (I now find out) was coincidentally the first person to comment on Chiira’s Just Maybe post. (Small world, this is).

A few hours after Deestinguished did this post, DR did this other one and, me being a good guy that I am, decided to speak out for the good guys out there. At first, when I saw DR’s post, I thought it was a counter to Deestinguished’s post, only to be ‘disappointed.’ For those who know Deestinguished, they know that the post was written two weeks to her birthday, and I have always wondered how many birthday gifts she missed from the good guys who read that post. My response was the much acclaimed Bad Is The New Good.

A few days to Valentines Day, I did one of my best post. We were trying to convince someone that he had to do ‘something’ for his ‘girlfriend’ or else he would lose her forever! (Just to mention that he did nothing, not even a text, and he has not lost her. Either there are still some good non-materialistic girls out there or there are some lucky bustards out there, me things!) The girls in the group gave their views of the perfect valentines package gifts (note the plural in the word gift and the word package!!!), and I noticed that there are things that guys take for granted that offend girls. I figured that there might be things that we hold dear (I did not use that word, did I?) that girls have no clue of. The result was this post. (not this one you are reading, but the one I am talking about.) After coming up with the draft, I asked Kevmotz, NdubiAbenga  and Jose to chip in. I am very grateful for their input. Ladies and Gentlemen, I present my favourite post, The Score Sheet.

The Score Sheet, for some reason, does not make it to number one. One day, I was in an M-pesa shop (trying to sell goats for those who are stupidly curious of what someone like me would be doing there), when I heard two guys talk like it was illegal to be intelligent (literary) about Actuarial Science. A few days later, when from lunch with a colleague, we talked about the profession and how challenging it is to qualify etc. I did some research (a little) and came up with 4 Facts of Actuarial Science. What I love most about this post are the comments. They always make my day.

There you have it, my best 10 posts. Let me know which is your best post in the comments section. 

THE DAY’S

Quote: Love thy neighbour all through the day… but first make sure her husband’s away!

4 Facts about Actuarial Science

It is easier to become a professor in Actuarial Science than become an actuary – Dr. F. Onyango.

One day as I did what I know best – which is to mind my own business – I was punished by being the proud person to overhear two grown, educated men talk like it was a crime to be intelligent. Sample this:

MAN A: District X produces the creme de la creme students in the country. It has produced over 6,000 actuarialists (sic).

MAN B: They are called Actuarial  Engineers or Scientists!

I had to interject to save myself from all this non sense.

ME: They are called actuaries and I highly doubt…

Just before I had spat out my two sense, I was cut short by…

MAN B: Sasa wewe kijana unafikiri sisi tulizaliwa jana?*

I immediately got an urge to die a natural death or if not to atleast puke to save myself from any more B.S from these two guys. The questions that will always linger in my mind are: Why were stones wasted on Stephen (the first martyr) when we have worthy contenders for the price of Stoning? Why could not the killers of Tupac spare him and kill guys who are worthy to die for their chupidness? Since those two men could not listen to me as I had been born yesterday, I will atleast speak to you because, like me, you were born yesterday as the proud son/daughter of Mr and Mrs. Intelligence!

Here are a few facts about Actuarial Science:

1. Advice to kids in high school who want to be actuaries: If at one time in your life you hated mathematics (even for just one lesson), do yourself a favour and look for another career. The commandments that you need to follow to become anything near an actuary are just three: Love Mathematics as you love yourself. Love Calculus as above and Love Probability as above. If you still feel that with your small hate for mathematics, you can still cope, then go ahead. It is anyone’s duty to warn any kid of the consequences of a sharp blade. It is more fun to watch the spoilt little brat kid (if he is not your own) cry after the blade has cut him though.

2. In order to be an actuary, you have to pass some very difficult exams. Ask anyone who has attempted them and they will tell you how easy it is to fail when you have read, crammed and mastered everything concerning a particular paper. If you have not done the above three, you will UNDOUBTEDLY FAIL! Having a first class in Actuarial Science does not make you an actuary!

3. Numbers: Based on 1 and 2 above, it is highly unlikely that a certain district in the country can produce 6,000 actuaries. Infact, the number of students who have graduated with an Actuarial degree in East and Central Africa is less than 6,000. (these are no where near being called actuaries). More puzzling is the fact that there are less than 35,000 actuaries in the world! I hope there are others in other planets. Compare that with the over 300,000 teachers in Kenya alone. There are less than 15 actuaries in Kenya. (the actual figure is 11 but I have decided to add 4 incase 1 or 2 qualify in the next few years). Of these, only one did not study abroad. In summary, after completing your Actuarial degree, you have a 1 in 1000 chance of being an actuary. The probability of death is about 9 in 1000. which means you are more likely to die than to qualify as an actuary!

4. Having said that, being an Actuary is the best job . It was named the best career of 2007, and has been ranked atleast in the top 4 in the last 6 years. Find other honours here.

Also read Actuarial Science in Kenya by Lucy Muthoni.

THE DAY’S

NOTE: Elizur Wright is considered by many as the father of Actuaries/Actuarial Science. You can read about him here

Quote: click here and here

Disclaimer: Once in a while I think about semi-serious stuff. This was one of those whiles.

*Young man, do you think we were born yesterday?

Math Hate Matics

Pure Mathematics is, in its way, the poetry of logical ideas – Prof. Albert Einstein

I used to love Mathematics for its own sake, and I still do, because it allows for no hypocrisy and no vagueness – Henri Beyle

I have read several (OK very many blogs) and a few (ok, several) posts about ‘A Letter to 13-year old me’. One thing is certain about most bloggers and writers is that they had a thing for writing/reading at an early age. It was their first love. But not ME! I guess I am just weird as everyone says…..or I am cut from a different cloth. While I loved reading and writing (I still do), my first love was Mathematics. And even today, if I am asked to choose just one…..writing will be the mistress. So today, I will do a post on Mathematics (for the sake of the people who love maths and more so if one day my boss decides to google my name and stumbles upon this blog).

When I learnt how to prove that 1=2, I immediately added the label genius to the guy I had learnt the trick from. Here is what one Mulati came up with. I will put it in a way that any Dick, Tom and Harry with no mathematical background will understand:

Proof that 1=2

Let a=1 and b=1;

Then a = b;     multiplying both sides by a gives

aa = ab;           subtracting both sides by b-squared (bb) gives

aa-bb = ab-bb          Solving, we have

(a+b) (a-b) = b (a-b)     dividing both sides by (a-b) gives

a+b = b            but a=1 and b=1 so we have

2 = 1 QED

Back when I was 15 and intelligent blood still flowed through my veins (Damn the Doctors for transfusing me with bad blood and reducing my IQ by a whole 53 points), I came up with this theorem that I called The Greatrnk’s Nine Rule. You should take note that I was 15, living in a third world country and studying at a school best known for burning dormitories and fighting with other high schools than its academic achievements.

Here is what I wrote about it to some fellows (not those of the Institute of Actuaries but guys who had some little knowledge of mathematics) :

…While it is highly possible that it has been documented before, I am yet to see of the same. I beseech you to do atleast one of the following:

1. Read through it.
2. Critic
3. Suggest an alteration or improvement to it.
4. Inform me if you have seen it in any book before.
5. Give any limitation of it. I know two.

I will try going through this in a manner that, according to me, someone who would rather take a bullet than understand Mathematics will grasp.

If we multiply any number, say n, by 9, then the following formula can be used to get the product:

9n = 10(n-1)+(10-n) e.g for n=5, we have
9*5 = 10(5-1)+(10-5) = 10(4)+5 = 45

If we again multiply any number, say n, by 99, then the following formula can be used to get the product:

99n = 100(n-1)+(100-n) e.g for n=2,we have
99*2 = 100(2-1)+(100-2) = 198

again, the product of any number, say n, and 999 can be found by:

999n = 1000(n-1)+(1000-n)

this can go on till 999999999999999………..

If mathematics is not your cup of tea, then its okay to understand upto this place.

So if m and n are integers greater or equal to 0, then

{(1*10^m)-1}n = (1*10^m)(n-1)+{(1*10^m)-n} <——- The Greatrnk Rule.

I later (8 years later) learnt that this thing already exists in the ‘Games’ part of Mathematics and ever since, I have not tried to come up with anything new! What was I thinking???

TODAY’S

Quote: I’ve dealt with numbers all my life, of course, and after a while you begin to feel that each number has a personality of its own.  A twelve is very different from a thirteen, for example.  Twelve is upright, conscientious, intelligent, whereas thirteen is a loner, a shady character who won’t think twice about breaking the law to get what he wants.  Eleven is tough, an outdoorsman who likes tramping through woods and scaling mountains; ten is rather simpleminded, a bland figure who always does what he’s told; nine is deep and mystical, a Buddha of contemplation – Paul Auster.

Facts: The sum of the first n odd numbers is equal to n-squared.

Three people are to buy three things costing Ksh 10 each. They send Greatrnk who manages to buy all the three things for Ksh 25 thereby saving Ksh 5. Greatrnk gives each of the three people a shilling and he remains with Ksh 2. Now, logically, the three people spent Ksh 10-1=9. Multiplying 9 by three is 27. Subtracting 27 from 30 gives Ksh 3. But greatrnk was left with Ksh 2, where does the shilling go to?

Please Do Not Try This At School: One of my roommates in college was burning the midnight oil. In the process, he was making new ground and discovering things undiscovered before, or so he thought. After playing around with the discovery till 4am (I think it was towards 5), he woke me up shouting ‘Eureka, Eureka!’ He had found a new formula. It is when he opened the next page of the book he was reading that he found the formula he thought he had discovered on the very first line. He switched off the lights for some sleep, and like me, he has not tried to discover anything new!

Disclaimer: My apologies to those who hate mathematics with a passion!