I love copying from people. It seems that nowadays, everyone writes an article and puts a misplaced title so that they can get everyone’s attention. Now that I have your attention, I hate to disappoint you that this post is one of those that will bore you to death so I suggest you read on since life is hard and we could all do with a break by dying.
It is about a fortnight to Valentine’s Day which means every guy in a relationship is trying to get out … until at least after valentines, while every girl not in a relationship is trying to get into one lest she uses her own money to send herself flowers. Luckily for guys, Valentines is on a Tuesday which means you will spend less (if it were a weekend, you would have to take her on a stupid getaway and – since you have not even finished paying debts you incurred in January – hope you are killed by a hungry stray gazelle. You were trying to save it from a caged satisfied lion is a great excuse, don’t you think?). Unluckily for ladies, Valentines is on a working day which means any of the following scenarios: He will spend less on you if you are lucky to be dating anyone during that bad period; If you are not dating anyone, you will have to buy yourself flowers and have them delivered to your place of work; If the whole office knows how wonderful your boyfriend is, then flowers must be delivered to your place of work or else you will be the laughing stock of the year; As if that is not enough, there is that girl you hate who will receive like 5 different bouquets of flowers yet she is single and not as ‘hot’ as you are, never mind that she sent herself 4 of them.
Valentines aside, how easy/hard is it for a guy to get a girl or vice versa?I went on a fact finding mission like Moha of Jicho Pevu, asked questions that have never been asked before, almost got killed in the process but lived to tell the tale. I should first of all say that I am no Steadman nor poll agency. My sample is a representative sample of the people on my phone book and not the whole world. I also used the same number of guys and girls. If Mathematics is not your thing, then you will be forgiven for not understanding only if you are a hot girl and if Mathematics is your thing and you find that I have done it a great injustice by making an error in facts or whatever, then send your comments to firstname.lastname@example.org.
The first question I asked was how many girls a guy had seriously hit on and vice versa for girls (how many guys had hit on her). On average, guys have hit on about 4 girls while girls have been hit on by about 15 guys. I am sure there must be an explanation to this anomaly that I do not know of like either both groups are exaggerating in opposite directions; or the girls in my phone book are hot and are hit on by many guys. My best guess however is that there are things that guys do, out of courtesy or whatever, that girls interpret to mean the guys are hitting on them. I will believe the average which is guys have hit on or girls have been hit on by about 10 girls/guys respectively.
The second question was: of the girls you have hit on, how many have you gone on to have a relationship with (for guys) and of the guys that have hit on you, how many have you gone on to have a relationship with (for girls). In short, guys date about 62% of the girls they date (on average about 3 of the 4 they hit on) and girls will only date 28% of the guys who will hit on them (on average about 4 of the 15 who will hit on them). OK, am I the only one who thinks these stats are funny? The average is 35% (about 3 of 10).
Hitting on a girl, or being hit on by a guy (ok, gays, do not be excited here, my survey is strictly for straight people) is like tossing a coin. There are two possible outcomes: Either the girl will say YES or NO to a relationship. We all know that the probability of getting a head or a tail when a coin is tossed is ½. We can also find the probability of getting, say 3 heads when a coin is tossed 4 times using binomial distribution. If you are a pretty girl and start floating henceforth, then you can be forgiven. If you are a guy, BE A MAN and understand this stuff. Befriend Google if things start getting too hot.
Let us assume the probability of a guy and a girl dating is the probability of success. In our case, the probability of a guy dating a girl he has hit on is 62% or 0.62. Using binomial distribution, the probability of a guy dating 3 of 4 of the girls he has hit on is about 36%. Likewise, the probability of a girl dating a guy who has hit on her is 0.28. Using binomial distribution, the probability that a girl will date 4 of the 15 guys who have hit on her is about 23%. The average is 25%.
If you are a guy and you hit on 4 girls and you do not get to date even 1 of them then you should learn how to do your laundry, cook and tidy the house since you are headed for bachelorhood all your life. If you are a girl and 15 guys hit on you and you do not date even 1 then prepare to spend your future with a cat and an adopted child since you are playing too hard to get.
The chances that a guy will date three quarters of the girls he will hit on are higher than the chances that a girl will date about a quarter of the guys who will hit on her.
The final conclusion is that I am probably as confused as you are.
I am indebted to the guys and girls who shared very private information for the sake of this post. This post goes out to them. I owe the girls lunches. To those who could not contribute for some reason or another, I still salute you.
In coming up with this post, I have relied heavily on the information I was given by several people. While the sample was random, it is neither a representative of the whole World, nor this country nor this town. It is a representative sample of the people on my phone book As many guys as girls were chosen.
The definition of ‘hitting on or being hit on’ was the same for both girls and guys. It did not include the flirting that happens in clubs or when a guy is chatting up a girl in a public transport vehicle. The definition included a “a serious show of interest in a relationship with a girl”
The figures in the post are mostly whole numbers unless those that cannot be whole numbers which are to two decimal places. However, the figures in the calculations are not whole numbers. I am no expert in probability distributions. It is however unlikely that a mistake was done in the calculations (bearing in mind I dedicated considerable time in researching for the post). The limitation of Binomial distribution is that it is a discrete distribution meaning the parameters have to be whole numbers/integers. Since the averages were not whole numbers, I had to round them off to the nearest whole numbers.
THE DAY’S QUOTE: The trouble with censors is that they worry if a girl has cleavage. They ought to worry if she hasn’t any – Marilyn Monroe.